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助成対象詳細(Details)

   

2016 研究助成 Research Grant Program  /  (A)共同研究助成  
助成番号
(Grant Number)
D16-R-0286
題目
(Project Title)
太平洋島嶼国からの気候変動難民が移転先で生活を円滑に再建するための施策―難民とホストコミュニティー住民の融和に向けて―
Measures for Smooth Livelihood Re-establishment of Climate Refugees from Island States in the Pacific: Towards harmonization of climate refugees and the residents of host community
代表者名
(Representative)
中山 幹康
Mikiyasu Nakayama
代表者所属
(Organization)
東京大学大学院新領域創成科学研究科
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo
助成金額
(Grant Amount)
 5,000,000
企画書・概要 (Abstract of Project Proposal)

    幾つかの太平洋の島嶼国では今後30年から50年の内に、気候変動による海面上昇で国土が水没し、国民は「気候変動難民」として他国に移転することを余儀なくされる。これらの移転者が、移転先のホストコミュニティーと融和して生活を再建するための方法論を確立することは国際社会にとって火急の課題である。移転者が移転先のコミュニティーとの摩擦を生じずに生活を再建するための方法論を、本研究により得られる知見から政策提言することが本研究の目的である。具体的には、気候変動による移転は移転のプロセスが10年から20年に亘ることに着目した「長期に亘る緩慢な移転」、「集団移転ではなく個別移転」、「ホストコミュニティーに喜ばれるセクターに就業」、「第二世代による交流が融和の起因」などの方法論の有効性を検証する。既に多くの移転者を受け入れた地域の実例を精査することを通じて、難民を送り出す国,受け入れる国、支援を与える国際社会、の三者が為すべき、「社会の新たな価値の創出」を志向した施策を政策提言する。

    Some islands states in the Pacific are supposed to be submerged by sea level rise within 30 to 50 years. People of these nations will be obliged to relocate to other countries as climate refugees. New methodology should be established so that these climate refugees may re-establish their livelihood after relocation by maintaining a good relationship with the host community. Climate refugees may have as long as a couple of decades for planning relocation. This feature should be taken into consideration for planning. We plan to examine the effectiveness of some modalities for relocation such as "slow-onset relocation of climate refugees", "relocation as individuals not as groups", "Securing jobs in the sectors appreciated by the host community" and "harmonization with the host community through exchange of the second generation". Policy recommendations towards "creation of new societal value" will be developed and shown to the islands states in the Pacific, host countries of future climate refugees, and international donors, so that they may better address the issue of climate refugees.

実施報告書・概要 (Summary of Final Report)

国際移住機関(IOM)は2050年までに世界で2500万人から10億人が所謂「気候変動難民」になると予想している.国連気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)は2018年に発刊した報告書で気候変動による1.5度の気温上昇は54から97cmの,2.0度の気温上昇は63から112cmの海水位上昇を招くと予想した.キリバスとマーシャル諸島(RMI)は全土が標高が低い環礁であり,海水位上昇による「気候移民」が生じると推定されている.
 2017年5月から2019年4月に掛けて,国際共同研究「太平洋島嶼国からの気候変動難民が移転先で生活を円滑に再建するための施策」が5か国(日本,米国,マーシャル諸島,ミクロネシア連邦,キリバス)から約20名の研究者の参加を得て実施された.研究の目的は,これらの環礁国から国外への移転者が,移転先の新たな環境の下で円滑に生活を再建することは過去に於いて可能であったか,将来に於いて可能であるか,を明らかにすることである.
 本研究ではRMIとキリバスを本研究では移転者の「発生源」とした.アメリカ合衆国(USA)とフィジーを移転者の「目的地」とした.また,環礁国ではないミクロネシア連邦(FSM)からUSAへの移転者についても比較した.更に,ウィーン市(オーストリア)による移転者への取り組みも,太平洋諸国からの移転者への対応に有益な知見を得るために研究した.
 RMI在住で移転を希望する短大生の内,65%が移転を希望する理由の最上位に教育を挙げた.就業(15%),医療健康(8%),家族(7%),気候変動(3%),海面上昇(2%)がそれに続いた.国土の殆どが火山島のFSMでも短大生の4%は移転を希望する理由の最上位に気候変動を挙げた.他方キリバスでは13.7%の大学生が,最上位に海面上昇を挙げた.同じ環礁国でもキリバスに住む大学生の方が気候変動を(RMI在住の短大生に比して)大きな脅威と捉えていると考えられる.
RMI在住の有識者は学生が海外への移転を希望する理由は的確に認識していたが,教育が占める割合の高さを過小評価していた.
 RMIからスプリングデール市(米国,アーカンソー州)への移転者が挙げた主な移転の理由は,家族(36%),就業(26%),教育(23%),医療健康(15%)であり,気候変動は主要な理由には含まれなかった.しかし35%の移転者は,移転を決意した理由の一つとして気候変動を挙げ,45%の移転者は気候変動を理由として故国には戻らないと決めている.
 スプリングデールでは就業しているマーシャル人移転者の89%は鶏肉工場に職を得ている.高度の技量を要しない職種に就くマーシャル人移転者が多いという事実は,彼等が高い教育を受けていないことを物語っている.移転者の多くは短時間の内に移転することを決めており,42%は「突然」移転し,30%は1-3か月の21%は3か月以上の準備期間があった.移転者の多くは移転先での新生活への準備不足を後悔していた.
 FSMからセイラムとポートランド(米国,オレゴン州)への移転者の49%は教育,同じく49%が就業,33%が家庭,31%が医療健康,8%が気候変動を主な移転の理由に挙げた(註:重複回答あり).移転者の59%は1か月未満の準備期間で移転した.彼等はホームヘルパー,精肉業,レジ係,医療事務,列車の運行管理,空港の係員,技術者,地域保健員,通訳など多彩な職業に就いている.移転者の15%は移転を決意した理由の一つに気候変動を挙げており,18%がFSMに帰還しない理由の一つとしている.明らかに,FSMからオレゴン州への移転者はRMIからアーカンソー州への移転者に比して,気候変動を大きな脅威としては捉えていない.
 ウィーン市では心の問題を抱えた移転者への対応が秀でており,多くの心理療法士が家庭内暴力や鬱病に対応している.また,家族起因の問題には家族全員を収容する施設で対応している.同市の「移転者分散政策」は,同じ民族だけで集団が構成される場合に起こりやすい,社会あるいは文化に起因する心の問題を回避する効用を有している.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that between 25 million and 1 billion people will become so-called climate refugees by 2050. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2018 suggested that a global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will induce 54 to 97 cm of the sea-level rise and that 2.0°C of increase will lead to 63 to 112 cm. The Republic of Kiribati and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are comprised entirely of low-lying atolls. These countries are vulnerable to the anticipated sea-level rise and destined to become the sources of climate migrants in the foreseeable future.
The international collaborative research project "Aspirations and Livelihood Transition of Migrants from the Pacific to Abroad" was launched and implemented from May 2017 to April 2019 with participation of about 20 researchers from 5 countries (Japan, USA, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia and Kiribati). The objective of this study is to examine whether people in these atoll countries were, are, or will be, ready to relocate to foreign countries successfully by re-establishing their lives and livelihoods in a new environment.
RMI and Kiribati are the case study areas of this research project as the origins of migrants. The United States of America (USA) and Fiji are also the case study areas of this research project as the destination of the migrants. For comparison purposes, migrants from the non-atoll country of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) to USA were also studied. Further, the way how the issues of migrants from the Middle East and Central Asia are addressed in the city of Vienna, Austria, was also examined to secure useful findings applicable for the migrants from the Pacific area.
It was found that 65% of the college students in RMI, who wish to migrate to abroad, put education as the primary reason to leave the country, followed by work (15%), health (8%), family (7%), climate change (3%) and natural disasters (2%). The same tendency was observed in non-atoll (mostly composed of volcanic islands) country of FSM, in that only 4% of the college students put climate change as primary reason to migrate to abroad. On the other hand, as many as 13.7% of university students in Kiribati put climate change (sea level rise) as the primary reason. It may imply that the students in Kiribati feel climate change as a threat much seriously than those in RMI, despite both are atoll countries.
Intellectuals in RMI rightly assumed the relative importance of factors (education, work, health, etc.) mentioned by the students, while the importance of education for the students was underestimated by the intellectuals.
As for the Marshallese migrants in Springdale (Arkansas, USA), the most often cited reasons for migrating included family (36%), jobs (26%), education (23%), and health (15%). Climate change or consequent sea level rise was not among major reasons. However, interestingly, 35% of the migrants indicated that climate change was a concern and that it compounded their desire to emigrate to the U.S. An even more sizable percentage (45%) indicated they did not intend to return to RMI permanently due to climate change factors.
In Springdale, 89% of Marshallese (with jobs) work in poultry plants. The availability of low-skilled employment opportunities reflects the relatively low levels of formal education of the Marshallese migrants. The move to USA was often on short-notice: 42% of all respondents indicated they moved suddenly, 30% indicated they had 1-3 months to plan, and 21% took more than 3 months. Many regretted that they migrated unprepared for their new livelihood.
As for the migrants from FSM to Salem and Portland (Oregon, USA), education (49%) and jobs (49%) were primary reasons for immigrating, followed by family obligations (33%), health concerns (31%), and climate change (8%). Please note that multiple responses were permitted for this survey. The majority (59%) emigrated within one month of deciding. They held a variety of positions including caregiver, butcher, cashier, medical biller, train operator, ramp agent at PDX airport, technician, community health worker, and qualified interpreter. 15% of them reported climate change as a factor for relocating to Oregon and 18% cited it as a factor for not returning to FSM. Apparently, climate change was less seriously regarded as a menace by the migrants from FSM to the Oregon State, as compared with the Marshallese migrants to the Arkansas State.
The most noticeable measure provided by the city of Vienna is mental care. A number of therapists serve to care of immigrants who suffer from domestic violence and/or depression. Therapists also work in facilities that may accommodate whole family members with family bound mental illness. The "disintegration" policy implemented in Vienna effectively avoids the emergence of society and culture-bound mental illness, which is inherent to a large isolated ethnic community.

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