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助成対象詳細(Details)

   

2016 研究助成 Research Grant Program  /  (B)個人研究助成  (B) Individual Research Grants
助成番号
(Grant Number)
D16-R-0397
題目
(Project Title)
半島マレーシアにおける気候・社会経済要因とデング熱との関係性の考察
Impact of Climate Changes and Socioeconomic Factors on Dengue Vulnerability in Peninsular Malaysia
代表者名
(Representative)
シャフィ・ムハンマド・タレク
Shafi Mohammad Tareq
代表者所属
(Organization)
ノッティンガム大学マレーシア校生命科学部
School of Bioscience, The University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus
助成金額
(Grant Amount)
 600,000
企画書・概要 (Abstract of Project Proposal)

    デング熱 は動物が媒介する病気の中でもとりわけ患者数の多い感染症であり、アジア太平洋地域の熱帯・亜熱帯地方では多くの人びとが感染のリスクにさらされている。
    そこで本プロジェクトでは、半島マレーシアでのデング熱への感染に気候要因と社会経済要因が及ぼす影響を探るための基礎研究を行う。研究に必要な調査は、感染率の高いマレーシア・セランゴール州とクアラルンプールの連邦直轄領で実施することを予定している。
    本プロジェクトの目的は、デング熱への感染と気候・社会経済要因との関連性を地域レベルで検証することにある。さらにこの分析データに、人口、土地利用の変動、都市化と森林破壊といった要素を加味した「気候に起因する健康リスク発生指数」を策定し、半島マレーシアでその有効性を検証する。この指数を活用することで、デング熱感染リスクの分析・予測が国レベル、地域レベルで可能となる。
    地域の公衆衛生の課題解決に貢献するだけではない。指数は気候パラメーター値を任意に設定できるので、アジア太平洋全域にわたり、デング熱感染率と気候要因の関係性についてシミュレーションが行うことができる。デング熱の大流行が起きたとしても、この予測シミュレーションが、盤石な事前対策となり感染拡大を抑制する一助となるであろう。

    Dengue is one of the most vulnerable vector-borne diseases in the tropical and sub-tropical Asia-Pacific region, where significant number of peoples are at-risk. Proposed project is a fundamental study of the impact of climate changes and socioeconomic factors on dengue vulnerability in peninsular Malaysia. This study will be conducted in Selangor and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur where the rate of incidence is high. The main objective is to find out relationship between dengue diseases incidences and climatic as well as socioeconomic factors in a regional scale. In addition, using this relationship and considering other factors including population, land use changes, urbanization and deforestation, a Climate-induced Health Vulnerability Index (CHVI) will be developed and to check its validity for regional context, i.e. peninsular Malaysia. Establishing such index will enable us to simulate and predict vulnerability of dengue across the region or country. Besides benefiting the local public health issue, this study is expected to benefit the whole Asia-Pacific region by simulating existing correlation between dengue incidence rate and climatic factors based on predicted climate parameters changes values. Simulation of future prediction will help to improve the preparedness and suppress the size of the impending outbreaks of dengue.

実施報告書・概要 (Summary of Final Report)



Impact of climate changes and socioeconomic factors on dengue vulnerability in peninsular Malaysia

Shafi M Tareq
School of Bioscience, the University of Nottingham, Malaysia

Abstract
Dengue is one of the most vulnerable vector-borne diseases in the tropical and sub-tropical Asia-Pacific region, where significant number of peoples are at-risk. An association between climate or socio-environmental factors and dengue vulnerability was assessed in Selangor and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur where the rate of incidence is high. Climatic factors such as temperature and precipitations change is likely to affect the seasonal and geographical distribution of dengue transmission in the study areas. Last twenty one year precipitation records and dengue incidence rate showed significant correlation. However, empirical evidence linking dengue transmission to temperature change is inconsistent across geographical locations and absent in some areas where dengue is endemic. More detail research is needed across different locations of tropical areas to better understand the relationship between climate change and dengue transmission. Socioeconomic factors such as population density, waste management and water supply of the study areas also affected the dengue incidence rates. Future research should be considered to develop more quantitative index for better understanding the assessment of the climate change-related effects on dengue transmission.

Keyword: Public health, Tropical, Malaysia, Climate changes, Dengue

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